IT'S ALL OVER, SEN. CLINTON
By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN
Published in the New York Post on May 7, 2008.
Printer-Friendly Version
She lost hard in North Carolina, and barely held on to win Indiana.
Hillary Clinton just doesn't have enough straws left to clutch. The
best (or worst) she can hope to do the rest of the way is bloody
Barack Obama enough to make him lose in the fall, allowing her to come
back in 2012.
In fact, Obama basically clinched the nomination with his string of 11
straight primary and caucus wins in February, many by wipe-out margins
- giving him a lead in elected delegates that Clinton couldn't hope to
close, especially given the nutty pro****tional-representation rules
that govern the Democratic Party.
Do the math. Last night's results leave him with a lead among elected
delegates of 150 or so, and among all delegates of around 130.
Only a handful of states are left to vote, with a combined total of
about 230 delegates. She'll probably win West Virginia, Kentucky and
Puerto Rico - and lose Oregon, North Dakota, and Montana. She most
likely could pick up a net 10 delegates, leaving him with a lead of at
least 130 (110, counting in superdelegates).
If Hillary manages to get Florida and Michigan seated (which she
won't), she'll net another 47 delegates. So Obama, worst case, will
have a lead of at least 60 delegates. Most likely, it'll be more than
100.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and
Democratic Chairman Howard Dean have all made it clear that they
expect superdelegates to decide who to sup****t within (in Reid's
words) "days, not weeks" after the last ballots are cast on June 3.
In that environment, Obama - who'll be only about 100 delegates short
of a majority - will be an irresistible choice. Few superdelegates
will want to risk civil war by overruling the verdict of the voters -
and almost all will want to climb aboard the victory bandwagon so as
not to get shut out of the White House for four (or eight) years.
In the past few months, Obama has closed Clinton's lead among
superdelegates from 60 to 20. The trend will accelerate after popular
voting ends; he'll probably pass the 2,025 threshold in the first two
weeks of June.
Clinton may stay in, hoping to can seat Florida and Michigan. But she
won't win there, either.
The Credentials Committee, which will make the key re****t, consists of
three votes for each state or territory. The remaining contests will
leave him with, at worst, a 10-state lead. Howard Dean names 25
committee members, but she can't prosper unless he stacks them all for
her - and, if anything, he'll go the other way.
Having lost there, her only option would be to appeal to the
convention floor - where neither of the contested delegations can vote
on their own credentials, virtually assuring an Obama victory on the
credentials fight and the nomination.
Clinton may well fight all the way - she's stubborn and dedicated.
More, she's also farsighted and devious: She could hope to so bloody
Obama that he can't beat John McCain. If McCain wins, she could get
the Democratic nomination in 2012 - and, with McCain closing in on 76
and after 12 years of GOP rule, win.
But one thing is clear: Obama has this nomination sewed up.
Go To DickMorris.com to read all of Dick's columns!
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
PLEASE FORWARD THIS E-MAIL TO FRIENDS AND FAMILY AND TELL THEM THEY
CAN GET THESE COLUMNS E-MAILED TO THEM FOR FREE BY SUBSCRIBING AT
DICKMORRIS.COM!
THANK YOU!
***COPYRIGHT EILEEN MCGANN AND DICK MORRIS 2008. REPRINTS WITH
PERMISSION ONLY***
|
